Since early June, the Dow has traded in a roughly 2000 point trading range and the S&P in a 500 to 200 point range and currently has no discernable direction. However, markets typically do not continue in a range much longer than what we have experienced in the past 4 ½ months. It will make a decisive move, soon.
China is back for more trade talks, nothing new. We are approaching the “teeth” of 3rd quarter earnings reporting season and this could propel the markets out of the range-bound activity.
For us here, we would like to have seen our lower support levels (around August, the Dow had lows of 25400’ish and the S&P was around 2825) achieved prior to any sharp upside move but as we all know, “ya can’t always get what you want” and “the market is always right.”
Given the information above, we're expecting these markets to start moving substantially higher, anywhere between where they are now and the lower support levels mentioned above. If the market can break above last week’s high, around 26660 for the Dow and 2960 for the S&P, the markets could be in a position to continue higher into year’s end.
If these parameters are not met, we will remain “most suspicious” indicating our lower support levels could happen.
For the moment, it is a “wait and see” situation.
We will keep you posted…….